Data analysis: Fee referendums drive ASUC voter turnout

The Daily Californian analyzed eight years of voting data and 12 years of referendum bills to see what drives students to the ballot.

Each spring, thousands of UC Berkeley students vote to elect their ASUC student body representatives and vote on critical student fee referendums.

The Daily Californian analyzed eight years of voting data and 12 years of referendum bills to see what drives students to the ballot. These referendums, which impact budgetary allocations to different campus departments, reveal how financial stakes may affect students’ willingness to vote.

Voter turnout falls short

Since 2018, ASUC elections have consistently failed to reach the majority of eligible students. Though turnout began increasing in 2022, suggesting greater student engagement, it dropped roughly 17 percentage points between 2023 and 2024.

As total student enrollment has grown by more than 7,500 since 2015, combined voter participation has remained between around 20 to 30 percent, except for an unusual high of 38 percent in 2023.

Voter turnout has fallen short for both undergraduate and graduate students. In the majority of election cycles, about one in four undergraduate students vote. Graduate student participation is much lower, averaging only four percent since 2018.

However, a clearer picture emerges when considering what’s on the ballot.

Fee referendums mobilize student turnout

The Daily Cal compiled a dataset tracking semester fee increases and voting margins for 26 fee referendums that have appeared on voting ballots since 2014. We found that certain ballot measures appear to have motivated students to participate in ways that candidate races have not.

The 2025 BayPass referendum, which provides free access to BART and 26 other transit agencies, was the highest fee increase at $124 per semester. The lowest increase of $0.50 supported the Daily Cal by raising the prior $2 V.O.I.C.E. fee, which provides the Daily Cal with financial support.

The two lowest voter turnouts, in 2021 and 2024, are the same years no student fee referendums passed.

According to the Division of Student Affairs, fee referendums must meet a two-part threshold to pass: A simple majority of those voting must approve the proposed fee, and 20% of students eligible to vote must participate in the referendum.

In 2021, while all three referendums on the ballot surpassed a simple majority, the overall turnout for each did not reach the minimum threshold to pass.

Former ASUC Senator Kailen Grottel-Brown, who sponsored multiple recent referendums, explained that introducing a new student fee referendum involves communicating with multiple stakeholders, including campus departments, the Student Fee Referenda Committee, the UC Office of the President and the ASUC.

The BayPass referendum, co-sponsored by Grottel-Brown, former ASUC Executive Affairs Vice President Saanvi Arora and Graduate Assembly External Affairs Vice President Sandra Sotomayor, required extensive negotiations with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, or MTC. The referendum provides unlimited public transit across the Bay Area beginning in August.

“We were on calls with BART and MTC to talk about what the lowest fee we could get for the referendum,” said Grottel-Brown.

While referendums typically last five to 10 years, the BayPass referendum is only valid for two years per the ASUC’s contract with the MTC. If the MTC agrees to extend it, an ASUC sponsor must draft another referendum for students to vote on.

Grottel-Brown added that while usually referendums are set to sunset on their own time, sometimes they are reviewed earlier if changes need to be made sooner.

The Big C(ommunity) referendum, or Big C, which established the Campus Climate & Equity Fee to support underrepresented and underserved students, wasn’t slated to expire for a couple more years. However, due to a higher demand for programs run by the Centers for Educational Justice and Community Engagement, the new Big C 2.0 referendum was put on the ballot with an increased fee.

Some fee referendums that fail due to a lack of the minimum number of votes appear on the ballot in following years.

Grottel-Brown noted the Big C 2.0 referendum provides funding for services that are under threat “of being lost under the federal government.” He attributed the success of the 2025 version of the referendum — following last year’s failure — to an organized physical campaign to mobilize students.

Campaign teams centered around ballot propositions have “more capacity to help push this forward than any one individual ASUC official or campus department,” Grottel-Brown said. Efforts to reach new populations included collaborative social media posts among senators, surveying students, and getting support from local leaders.

Combined, all of these factors led to an increase in voter turnout for the referendum by almost 10 percentage points from the previous year and its subsequent passing, despite the fee increase being higher than what was proposed in 2024.

ASUC President Abigail Verino also said in an email that “working with community centers” and different student caucuses can help garner support for referendums and encourage students to vote.

While overall turnout trends have fluctuated over the years, voter engagement has consistently peaked when transportation-related referendums appear on the ballot, such as the Class Pass renewal in 2023 and introduction of BayPass in 2025.

Grottel-Brown explained students are most engaged with issues relating to transportation, accessibility and equity needs.

The spikes in turnout were seen not just for the fee referendums alone, but also for turnout in the student body elections, highlighting that changes brought about by referendums and student fees do indeed play a role in driving students to vote.

“There won’t be a transportation referendum every year,” added Grottel-Brown. “I hope that the elections council and ASUC finds other ways of increasing voter turnout.”

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